Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150325
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/14/2020 3:13:12 PM
Other than the adjustment for market capitalization you suggested previously, I agree. No need (for now) to tweak anything until enough trades are closed to really see how things are working.
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miketranz
978 posts
msg #150331
- Ignore miketranz
modified |
1/14/2020 8:12:18 PM
I'm starting to like this system.A couple of real nice intra day hits today.Thanks for the education.Miketranz...
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150334
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/15/2020 8:29:53 AM
Over the long term I doubt the stats will be as good as the past few days, but thanks for the comments. Shorting stocks like these does contain a high level of volatility and risk, and there will probably be more than a few spectacular flubs along the way.
Looks like LJPC will probably close out as a loss since as you move forward the ROC(5,1) will drop below 50 at a price that is still higher than your entry - just math and time working against the reversion. That is why I was thinking about the 3 day hold as a way to let losing trades go and move on rather than hold onto losers and take even more punishment.
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150367
- Ignore Village Elder
modified |
1/16/2020 12:26:16 PM
Based on exit rules, all current open trades will be closed at the end of today - LJPC and NLS will close out as the first losses, but yesterday and today's action has reduced those losses considerably.
Looking at the filter results so far, I would not trade either ADAP or NK as the ROC(5,1) rule will almost surely be triggered with a day of entering the trade, which will increase the risk of an exit triggering too quickly to make a profit. A BIG prior move within the current 5 day window (which we caught and made a profit on in both of these cases) needs to be considered in light of the math used in exit rule 2.
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novacane32000
331 posts
msg #150398
- Ignore novacane32000 |
1/17/2020 7:16:48 PM
Thanks for sharing Village Elder
Question. With no stop on these orders, it seems eventually there will be a 100% move or even a 200% move against a trade resulting in as much as a $20K loss if you wait to exit end of day.
I understand the reluctance to use a stop intraday as it often results in premature exits from eventual winners.
Thoughts?
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150400
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/18/2020 12:11:03 AM
Trade it with whatever cautions you see fit. For the present and foreseeable future I'll continue to use the simple 2 exit rules currently in place - remember that this is still a test of the system, and I am doing it with full transparency on trades so that folks can come to their own conclusions about it.
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chi-town
44 posts
msg #150402
- Ignore chi-town |
1/18/2020 4:37:35 PM
Hi Village,
Do you use market on open or a limit order?
Thanks
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Village Elder
231 posts
msg #150411
- Ignore Village Elder |
1/19/2020 9:04:14 AM
The system is being paper-traded right now, so I am simply using the open price as the entry. When I trade from this I have used a market order, which gives you the entry (versus a limit order which may or may not fill). You lose some on the bid/ask spread but that is par for the course.
I have also run into the "not enough shares available to short" message trying to trade this filter in my account. Happens occasionally to anyone trying to short stocks or ETFs.
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chi-town
44 posts
msg #150419
- Ignore chi-town |
1/20/2020 8:53:33 AM
Got it,
Thanks
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dtatu
143 posts
msg #150423
- Ignore dtatu
modified |
1/20/2020 9:37:03 PM
I agree with the post of Novacane 32000:
- if you do not test it with STOPS , you should never trade it.
We have some recent examples of 1 SINGLE FATAL TRADE, after long lasting winners:
- Kevin with XIV
- and the Famous : Optionsellers.com: one single Fatal NatGas trade blew up a successful Firm after 20 yrs?( naked options)
-https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/12/18/the-optionsellers-debacle/
One should NEVER be exposed to the upside with no stops, especially in these volatile stocks.
Q: is there an inverse system , in which the downside risk is maximum ZERO?
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